The biggest sporting event on the planet starts today with Mexico taking on hosts South Africa in the opening match. Here I will preview each group and predict which teams will advance.
Group A
This first group has two former World Cup winners in Uruguay and France as well as the host nation South Africa and Mexico, a two time quarterfinalist. There has been a lot of talk about how South Africa may become the first host nation to lose their opening match and not advance out of their group. Rubbish. With the vuvuzelas in full blast I see South Africa drawing with Mexico and beating Uruguay. They may lose to France but by then they will have amassed 4 points, which will be enough to take them through. I think that Mexico wins the group by knocking off Uruguay and an underachieving French side that probably should not be at the tournament (See handball, Thierry Henry).
Group B
A group, which Argentina in theory should dominate with South Korea, Nigeria, and Greece. The Koreans made it all the way to the semis on home soil in 2002 but they caught a lot of breaks on the way. I don’t see them or Greece catching any this time with Argentina and Nigeria advancing easily. The winner of the group will be determined by the first match between the two sides tomorrow. I see the Super Eagles not being able to contain the young and quick Argentinean attack allowing for Messi to run wild and lead Argentina to a huge opening round victory.
Group C
Now we have come to the group composed of England, Algeria, Slovenia, and the United States. While it is tempting to pick the underdog Algerians or Slovenians to advance over say England, barring a catastrophic injury to Wayne Rooney, I don’t think it will happen. I see the US and England playing to a draw tomorrow with the US getting a late goal in stoppage time to salvage a draw. England I think will handle Slovenia and Algeria easily while the US will struggle with the Slovenians. I see the US drawing with Slovenia and crushing Algeria to advance to the knockout round in second place behind England.
Group D
For me the D in Group D stands for death. Germany, Australia, Serbia, and Ghana are four quality teams that can push any other squad to the limit on a given day. This group is now even more wide open after the Germans lost their captain Michael Ballack to an ankle injury and Ghana lost their best player Michael Essien to a knee injury. That being said I expect the Germans to win the group because well they are the Germans. They play organized defense and find ways to score a goal or two and win matches. Even though Australia looked flat against the US in a match played last Saturday, I will take the Socceroos to finish second ahead of Serbia and Ghana based on the injury to Essien and the inconsistent play of Serbia in warm up matches.
Group E
The Netherlands headline this group along with Denmark, Japan, and Cameroon. I expect the Japanese to struggle mightily in this group and the Dutch to top it with relative ease despite their best player Arjen Robben suffering a hamstring injury at the worst possible time. It then comes down to Cameroon and Denmark, who will battle in out for second. While it would be nice to see another African team advance, I can’t see Denmark not advancing. I will take the Danes over the Indomitable Lions on goal differential.
Group F
One of the more interesting groups in the tournament is Group F that features Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, and Slovakia. The Italians, despite being old and looking shaky in warm up matches still will top this group. It would be tempting to pick New Zealand, the third lowest ranked team at the Fifa World Cup to advance in a shock upset but I like Slovakia here. I believe they have a world class player in midfielder Marek Hamsik and could potentially challenge Italy for first in the group. Paraguay underachieved at the last World Cup in Germany and I expect them to do so again.
Group G
Group G has been called the group of death by a number of experts as it features the first and third ranked teams in the world in Brazil and Portugal as well as the perceived top African side in the Ivory Coast. Whose is the fourth team in the group? Oh right, it’s the North Koreans, who are overmatched by the other three squads in this group. Didier Drogba, the captain and prolific scorer for the Ivory Coast, broke his arm last week in a warm up match and there is talk as to whether he will partake in the tournament. I see him playing in the first match and leading his country to an upset win over Portugal and pretty boy Cristiano Ronaldo. Brazil advances as the top team in the group, yawn.
Group H
This last group contains the favorite to win the whole tournament in Spain along with Switzerland, Honduras, and Chile. I like Chile to advance behind the Spanish in this group. They finished second in South American qualifying and can score a lot of goals. The Swiss, who were knocked out in the round of 16 by Ukraine in 2006 despite not giving up a goal the entire tournament, will again struggle to score and Honduras can thank Jonathan Bornstein for giving them a trip to South Africa. Spain looked unbeatable in their 6-0 win over Poland this past week, and I expect them to continue that form with three wins in the group stage.
So there you have it. 32 teams will be reduced to 16 and then the fun really begins with the knockout stages. Sorry for the lack of real analysis but I have to be at work shortly. I will be providing actual analysis and more offbeat posts as the tournament progresses.
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